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• "There is more stupidity than hydrogen in the universe, and it has a longer shelf life." -- Frank Zappa |
Dr. Dial-A-Quote
Let us begin with a quote...
I continue to believe that 2004 will be an election very similar to other modern elections involving an incumbent president. The results will be a referendum on the incumbent; that is, the people will give George W. Bush a collective thumbs up or thumbs down. The Democratic nominee is secondary to the results. Yes, some serious candidates will get a few point more and others will do a few points worse in November. But whether Howard Dean or John Kerry, as the nominee, can get back to the center, is far less important than how Bush is rated on his overall job performance, and especially on the economy and Iraq. A lot of the hand-wringing by Democrats about the identity of their nominee is overwrought.... then add a little perspective.
***
On days when I'm thinking all the IT jobs are gone and it's time to go back to my first love, news, I get to thinking about what I miss most about life in the news business.
The answer may surprise you.
It's talking to Larry Sabato.
Dr. Sabato, the author of the above quote, is a political scientist at the University of Virginia. In the Rolodex at the old UPI bureau in Richmond, we had his name and numbers, and then someone had scrawled underneath "Dr. Dial-A-Quote."
In the 10 years since I've been out of news, Sabato has grown in standing (the Wall Street Journal called him the most-quoted professor in America). He now has a dandy Web site that deserves a plug -- http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball. (My Web developer instincts want to get on him over the <Iframe> implementation, but that's a quibble).
The reason I now quibble over the dial-a-quote designation is that nowadays there's an entire cadre of alleged experts (Ann Coulter) and talking heads (Jesse Ventura) who get far more air time than Sabato. And that's too bad. Unlike the aforementioned, Larry always knows his stuff. His memory is incredible. His analysis, steeped in history, is generally very, very good. And his discussion of America being split between red states and blue states should be must reading for every voter.
And boy do I miss him talking to him. He was always unfailingly polite, and when I was working the political beat, it was extra nice when I could trade intel with him. Too bad that Robb, Baliles and Wilder seem like ancient history nowadays. His current analysis on Wesley Clark is absolutely classic.
For what it's worth, if I ever hit the lotto, I'm running for the U.S. Senate. And when I do, I hope he remembers me kindly.
At least I'll know not to meet him for dinner at a steak house.
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Politics is a good thing, at least according to a famous Larry Sabato button. |